Success Leaves Clues…so does Failure

The summer “wedding season” is almost over.  I personally know of at least two couples tying the knot this very weekend.  I wish them well.  In my ongoing research into making better decisions (both financial and otherwise), I have come across some interesting information about some signs that might predict a successful marriage.  I can think of no better time than now to share.

Over the long term, money problems have proven to be a contributing factor to many divorces.  In America, 48% of people who are married or living with a partner state that they argue about money.  Depending on what generation you belong to, somewhere between 29% and 41% of divorcees report that they ended their marriage over money.  This may be a good indication that a couple should prioritize some degree of financial security, or at least have some long substantive conversations about money, before getting married.

The concept of family finances is a broad one, so I thought it useful to find more specific examples of money-related decisions that could affect the longevity of a marriage. There are usually a few “one-off” decisions that may correlate with a bad outcome.  If we use a marriage ending in divorce as an example of an undesirable outcome, we can look at something as specific as the wedding itself.  Two Emory University professors, Andrew Francis-Tan and Hugo M. Mialon did a study in 2015 that showed a clear relationship between the duration of marriages and two very specific costs.  Using data from over 3,000 married Americans, they found an inverse relationship between the length of a marriage and the amounts spent on the wedding ceremony and the engagement ring.  Specifically, their work showed that wedding costs exceeding $20,000 led to divorce 1.6 times more often than those with a tab of between $5,000 and $10,000.  This may be a good argument for an engaged couple to “keep it simple” when it comes to the big party and the associated jewelry.  If the evidence above isn’t convincing enough, one group with a below-average divorce rate is couples that spent less than $1,000 tying the knot.

There is a saying that, “success leaves clues.”  So does failure.  By working backward from an undesirable outcome, maybe we can help make some decisions along the way a bit simpler.